What are your thoughts?
What does your faith say?
What are you doing?
Do you think your actions reflect your faith?
As Christian preppers, we are just doing what we have been doing.
Living for the best, preparing for the worst.
We could rehearse historic events where Christians were endangered by events both natural (earthquakes, disease, floods, etc) and worldly (wars, famine, social upheaval). Starting with the famine mentioned in the book of Acts and proceeding through the persecutions, wars, plagues, for the last 2000 years.
God warns us, we fear because we believe, we prepare, we save our families.
We are the Noahic believers. The Antioch preppers.
First can I say - as a very experienced nurse - that COVID-19 is no more dangerous than seasonal flu. Which means that those who are healthy need not be concerned. If you do pick up the virus it's unlikely to be much more than a mild to moderate cold. Just like influenza, if you are a suffer of any chest complaint such as asthma or COPD, then you should be concerned and see your doctor at the earliest. The media do love to trumpet about the number of people who die from this viral infection but have never mentioned the thousands of people that completely recover from it. There are evasive actions you can take to protect yourself:
- DON'T shake hands, hug or kiss other people
- try using the 'foot shake' or 'elbow bump' instead (see YouTubes)
- there is evidence that some are using a 'bum bump' instead! Much more fun!
- wash your hands frequently during the day, that's properly not just a splash (see chart below)
- don't depend on sanitising gels - they're okay for temporary instances but if used a lot, they will just damage your skin
Other points to note are that this virus isn't that different from the influenza virus authorities worry about every year and for which largely ineffective immunisation is available. The big difference is that scientists know quite a lot about the influenza viruses as they've been around for a few hundred years. The coronovirus (AKA COVID-19) is brand spanking new and nobody knows how it works, how it grows or how it can affect the human beings, specially the vulnerable types - like me who is 78 and has diabetes. Apparently I'm an 'at risk' group! Funny, I feel pretty spry!I think that's enough lecturing for one post - happy virus ducking!
Actually a report came out today stating that COVID 19 is 34 times as likely to kill the victim... especially if they are over 60 or if they have other health issues.
This is not the flu.
"So how deadly is it to individuals? "Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization's director, on March 3. That's still much higher than the flu (0.1 percent) but lower than SARS (10 percent), MERS (34 percent), or Ebola (50 percent). "
It is possible that up to 70% of the world population will catch COVID 19.
Deaths may reach as high as 136 million people.
I think it is dangerous to downplay this disease. Especially for the seniors and chronically ill.
Quote from: LittleRocketBoy on March 06, 2020, 11:13:08 pmThis is not the flu.You see, this is exactly what people do - I never said it was flu, I said it was a virus similar to flu but different in that it's "brand spanking new and nobody knows how it works, how it grows or how it can affect the human beings." That's what makes it dangerous.
Read my post again and see what I REALLY said!
Quote from: LittleRocketBoy on March 06, 2020, 11:13:08 pmThat's still much higher than the fluI can't speak for what happens in the US but in the UK it's certain that several thousand die each year from seasonal influenza yet this is hardly ever spoken about. ONE person dies from COVID-19 and it's major headlines all over the country! What is not headlined is the thousands of people who get this infection and recover from it without a problem. But they are mostly young to middle-aged persons who are in good health.
Quote from: LittleRocketBoy on March 06, 2020, 11:13:08 pmI think it is dangerous to downplay this disease. Especially for the seniors and chronically ill.Now there I agree with you 100%. As I believe I said previously, it is dangerous because it's a new and totally unknown virus. People have no immunity to it as yet and the vaccine won't be available until later in the year. All these things do make it serious. I also said that it is dangerous to people (like myself) who are over 60 and have co-morbidities such as diabetes (me), asthma, chronic bronchitis or COPD. These do comprise a very small percentage of the population and just like a cold or mild flu - as I said before - most people that get infected with COVID-19 will recover from it just as they would from a moderate common cold. The most important issue is taking precautions like washing hands (as per the chart) but frequently, like every hour or so. I was in a shop today and the check-out lady coughed, covering her mouth with her hand. When I mentioned it to her, suggesting she should have coughed into the crook of her elbow, she said she had hand sanitiser but had made no effort to use it after she coughed! I shall ring the store on Monday and speak to the manager, maybe even offer to give his staff a little educational talk if he feels it necessary or appropriate!
So my take is the disease may be dangerous to those who catch it, but how likely is that to happen?
In China, a country with 1.4 BILLION people, only 80,000 people contracted it. That equates to roughly .00005% of a chance in China.
I am not buying into the panic. When the swine flu was a thing 10 years ago, it died out. Ebola was supposed to kill everyone, didn't happen.
Wash your hands, increase your vitamin C and antioxidants and go about your day. It goes back to what I said in the Trump thread. The media lets us know what is best for their agenda for us to know. They need a disease scare and here it is, the next big plaque.
Quote from: Bryan on March 07, 2020, 11:11:11 pmSo my take is the disease may be dangerous to those who catch it, but how likely is that to happen?It might be easy to catch it but given you're not in an 'at risk' group, it shouldn't be any worse than a mild to moderate cold. However, we should all be aware that, as I said previously, the hazard of this virus is that it's totally new, only launched itself n the human race late last year and there are lots of things we don't know about it, like
All these things are known about ordinary cold bugs, influenza and many other infections, both viral and bacterial.
- the incubation period
- the manner of its transmission between people
- how long it lasts for in humans
- what the life span of the affect is
- how it will change or transmute as the seasons change
- what its mode of mutation is.
Quote from: jiminpa on March 08, 2020, 09:38:18 amincrease your vitamin C and antioxidantsJim, that's marginally useful for the common cold in which case, at the very first sign of the sniffles, take 1,000gms vit C every 2 hours for 2 days. But nothing like this is known about COVID-19. Sorry.
This is what I posted on Facebook regarding the coronavirus outbreak;
OK, so all of this talk about the lethality of COVID-19 vs. the flu irritates me. Did you people pay attention in math class? According to the CDC website, there have been somewhere between 34,000,000 and 49,000,000 cases of the flu with between 20,000 and 52,000 deaths. That's a mortality rate (using both high numbers) of about 0.1%. By contrast, the latest available CDC report (at the time of this posting) shows that there are 1,215 cases of COVID-19 and 36 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 2.9%, or nearly 30x greater than the flu.
There's no need to panic, but let's not be stupid either. Pretending this is just like the flu is foolish. And for the love of all that is pure and holy, please stop blaming the media for reporting the reality that is taking place in the world.
My faith tells me that God is still in control and bigger than COVID-19 or any other virus, but that doesn't absolve us from making wise decisions. Perhaps we should CALMLY and RATIONALLY heed the advice of medical professionals lest we find ourselves in the same (or worse) situation as Italy.
Quote from: Pete on March 12, 2020, 06:46:42 pmMy faith tells me that God is still in control and bigger than COVID-19I couldn't agree more!
Quote from: Pete on March 12, 2020, 06:46:42 pmthat doesn't absolve us from making wise decisionsI was in the doctors this afternoon. A toilet in the waiting room had its door fixed open with a large notice saying "PLEASE WASH YOUR HANDS BEFORE YOU GO FOR YOUR APPOINTMENT". There were also noticed all over the walls and doors as well. My doctor was running about 40 minutes late and in that time, I watched about 7 people come in an not one of then complied! One wonders if it's because they don't commonly wash their hands!
So our esteemed lead Boris Johnson has now deemed that certain groups are going to be confined to their homes or 'self-isolated'. These would be primarily the 70+ people, those with other conditions such as asthma, bronchitis or diabetes, plus other conditions as yet unidentified. The 'other conditions' could apply to all ages and there is a suggestion that a form will be available on Gov.uk to print off. We will be obliged to fill this in and carry it with us. At the same time, police will be given powers to stop and check people out and about and ask to see this document. If this happens, I'll be in virtual solitary isolation. I have been anyway for 2-3 years. this action will just make it a complete police state!
Actually it won't make much difference to me as I only go out once a week anyway, for an hour or two and don't see anyone at all in between times!
My company just announced that anyone who can work from home should work from home. This isn't a huge change for me since I've been working half my day from home since 2012, but it is a major change for many of our employees. My team and I are currently supporting the remote work setups.
Kids are off school for at least 2 weeks, although we're already hearing that might stretch out to the rest of the school year. So basically it's just us 4 at home all day now. This Thursday is grocery day, so we'll have to venture out to buy whatever is available, but the closet Walmart is literally less than 1/4 mile from our house, so not exactly a huge journey.
We had church this past Sunday when the directive was to avoid gatherings of 50 people or more. We're under that threshold on a normal week, and more people stayed home than usual, so we were well under that number. Not sure if that will happen this week or not since the directive is now to avoid gatherings of 10 people or more. Heck, we have one large family at our church that would have to kick some of their kids out to abide by that ruling!
Still, there are people who think this is just a big media hoax, and I have no idea why. When you compare the data of where we're at currently in this pandemic to others, it's extremely easy to see why health experts are advising such extreme measures. It will be interesting to see how long these closures and disruptions last. Currently, the CDC is advising to avoid gatherings of more than 50 people for at least 8 weeks. The latest directive from the President advising to avoid against gatherings of more than 10 people is only for 15 days. I wonder if they will slowly loosen the restrictions over time, or if everything will return to normal all at once.
Regardless, I've decided that while I am not afraid nor panicking in any way, it is a good idea to make wise decisions. I've never been one to buy into conspiracies, and Lord knows there are plenty of them flying around out there today. I tend to be a facts and figures kind of guy, and the current data indicates that these drastic measures are warranted, IMHO.
So our church is viewing the coronavirus as an opportunity. While most churches have gone to an online streaming format where congregation members can watch the service, we've taken a different approach. Since our church is relatively small (we typically have between 30-50 currently on a Sunday morning), we are doing a Zoom video conference call. Our first call was yesterday morning and it was a huge success! We had 42 people represented on the video call with about 22 separate connections. We opened up the call around 9:00, about an hour before we were planning to start, and as people joined, we were able to fellowship altogether. This was a nice change from what typically happens prior to a physical church service, with smaller groups talking together. The Zoom video call means everyone is involved in the same conversation, which was nice. Then around 10:00, our pastor shared a message of encouragement for about 25 minutes, and then we opened it up for a big group discussion. Multiple people shared verses and encouragement and we all just spent a great time of fellowship together before closing out with a group prayer. Given the circumstances, we now find ourselves in, it was a great service!
We're also going to be able to do things we could never do in our regular service. For example, I'm really hoping, Jo, that you are able to join us next week. I saw your posts on Facebook and we would love to have you fellowship and worship with us!
I'm reminded of something I learned in a leadership class regarding "change", and that is when things don't go our way, we can get bitter, or we can get better. So be encouraged each time you encounter adversity to view it as an opportunity. What the devil means for evil, God turns for good!
Pete, I will cetainly join your meeting next Sunday. Your description of how it works gave me goosebumps and when I read your hope that I join you, I felt a huge wave of the Holy Spirit wash over me! Haven't actually felt that in a long time!
It's been a LOOOONNNNGGGG time since I have been around. Certainly, in the past couple of months, life has changed in our world more than anyone could ever have expected.
Churches were shut down here about three weeks ago (about a week after pubs, clubs, cinemas etc.) so we are having services online. It is good, but I am missing the social interaction! Basically (like most of the world I guess) we are told don't go out unless you have to. My flat mate has been spending most of her time at a friends she visits every weekend anyway, and in the last there weeks she has been home maybe 3 days all up! Two of those were yesterday! So I have hardly seen anyone in that time.
Pineapple (my cat) love the occasional pat but he has never been much of a conversationalist and at 16 1/2 spends more time sleeping than anything else.
Still if it all gets me back in touch with old friends I have neglected badly for many years....
FOADLE!!!! How lovely to hear and see you again! It's strange that this awful present situation has reunited so many old friends. So as the saying goes "many a cloud has a silver lining"!
I had a lovely moment last Thursday. We have created a weekly thing in the UK (and in the US too,so I hear) of clapping for the carers. This was the third week we did it and as I stood out by my garden gate, various neighbours waved to me. That was nice.
Us Aussies are not quite that sophisticated, but apparently there is another trend that is catching on...
Just saw this one: much more entertaining than the one I posted yesterday
Those were jolly good laughs! Thank you -and trust the Ossies!
Foadle and Jo, I'm curious...
Here in the US, conspiracy theories abound regarding the coronavirus. Is this unique to the US? I mean, are conspiracy theories rampant where you live, or in other parts of the world? Obviously the bulk of my news and contacts are from the US, so I'm just wondering if other parts of the world are propagating conspiracies on the scale that I see in the US.
We are not immune. I must admit some of these conspiracy theories (in this particular incident) I am more inclined to believe than the purported truth.
I think that conspiracy theories are a part of human nature...and THAT is in every country. ;)
I've never been one to believe in conspiracy theories. I'm a facts and figures kind of guy that subscribes to Occam's Razor in most cases. Plus, most of these conspiracy theories completely fall apart with even a cursory examination. That said, I know that some conspiracy theories do turn out to be accurate. Watergate, for example, was most certainly a conspiracy theory until it was proven.
The conspiracies that confound me the most are the ones that posit that this is all just one big attempt to take down our President. Like, think for a minute about the implications of what would need to be true for that to be the truth. Here we have a global pandemic affecting almost every country on earth. Yet a section of Americans believes it's all just a big conspiracy to "get" Trump. :doh:
I just don't understand, and likely never will.
No, this certainly is not a China trying to get Trump. That makes absolutely no sense. That would be like trying to catch guppies to feed a family...not going to happen. China is not after individual's. What they are after is control and that has been quite obvious to me for quite some time...I just wish our government could see it and not keep adhering to their whims.
The "conspiracy" theory I was talking of is that it started in a Chinese wet market. I am not so sure. Over the past ten years or so there have been several outbreaks of epidemic proportions:
and now this.
Four of these six outbreaks have started in China and three of those four are previously "unheard" of.
Further they are mostly said to originate from wet markets. That doesn't add up either. Wet markets have been in operation for a very long time and not just in China. Most if not all Asia uses wet markets, as does Africa and South America. So, why only from China? And why recently?
Personally, I am of the opinion that China is trying to manufacture biological weapons and that they have escaped from labs. There are two virology labs in Wuhan not far from the accused wet-market. Technically they are for studying virus so as to create better treatments...at least that is what we are told, but are they.
To me this scenario fits well into explaining why, there is documented evidence that China knew of the outbreak at least as early as 17 November. The WHO also dropped themselves in because China maintains that their first known outbreaks were only know 31 December, but WHO in their tirade against Taiwan said that it was the 27 December. Why the conflict?
Further, Australia and America had shut their boarders before either China or WHO would acknowledge that this was even an epidemic! Doesn't that say something. Both the Chinese Communist Part and WHO knew and know a lot more than they are willing to let on, and that is why the situation is as it is globally. People did not know what they were up against because China and WHO were not forthcoming. If everything is above-board, why wouldn't they be?
Those are all valid questions, but then I have to ask myself what motive health experts would have in lying about the origins of the virus. From what I've read, they believe the virus originated in a bat and perhaps took a detour through a pangolin before jumping to humans. This is not unheard of. Viruses do sometimes jump species. So it's not really that far fetched for me to believe that the unsanitary conditions of wet markets create an ideal environment for viruses to jump species.
My theory is that world governments have not invested sufficiently in pandemic containment. It's easy to justify cutting funding and research when there is not an active problem. Once you have a problem, it's too late. And that's why I believe we're in the mess we're in now.
I think that as things start to return to some semblance of normalcy, there will be a renewed push on virology and epidemiology, making sure we are investing in the prevention of another such outbreak. But I also suspect at some point not too long after things have gotten back to normal, we will again undervalue the importance of these things.
I certainly don't disagree with you there. Although there have been many epidemics over the years, the last pandemic was the Spanish flu after WWI. Unfortunately mankind is well known for its short memory span, and due to that less and less has been put into national protections against such things.
Quote from: Pete on April 14, 2020, 08:01:50 pmwhat motive health experts would have in lying about the origins of the virus. From what I've read, they believe the virus originated in a bat and perhaps took a detour through a pangolin before jumping to humans. This is not unheard of. Viruses do sometimes jump species. So it's not really that far fetched for me to believe that the unsanitary conditions of wet markets create an ideal environment for viruses to jump species.
No, that side of it is not. Is it possible? Yes. But why are such virulent viruses coming ONLY out of Chinese wet-markets.
The World Health Organisation will not release the list of the way people voted (from what I understand this is not normal practice), but it is known that there were several countries in the WHO calling for pandemic status long before it the WHO would allow but they were shut down. Further whistle-blowers in China were arrested for "making false allegations" and Li Wenliang, while the best known of these, was not the only one. So we know that Chinese doctors were trying to get the information out there long before China Communist Party would even recognise that they had a problem in Wuhan much less anywhere else. Others who have or did mention it simply "disappeared."
WHO's "reasoning" for not declaring a problem is that there was no known human-to-human spread. China was saying there was no evidence of it, though the doctors were telling them the opposite. Furthermore, Taiwan told WHO there was human-to-human spread in early January before WHO made its decision. WHO will not recognise Taiwan though because it is led by an Ethiopian communist who was head of the medical board there and is known to have covered up three cholera epidemics in his time in office.
It is not that medical officials were lying, it is that they were being shut down.
This also was a rather interesting watch:
Actually, in 2009, H1N1 (aka Swine Flu) was the last global pandemic. I see a lot of stuff on Facebook about how no one shut anything down for that pandemic, and by all counts, the number of infected was much higher. There are 2 things wrong with this logic.
First, the numbers people cite from the H1N1 pandemic were from the end of the pandemic. In other words, the pandemic had lasted 12-18 months and the data was complete. This is being compared to data in the beginning months of this current pandemic where the numbers are growing exponentially every day.
Secondly, H1N1 had a MUCH lower mortality rate than this current coronavirus. Estimates put the H1N1 mortality rate somewhere between 0.01% and 0.02%. The current case fatality rate for this coronavirus (although it changes every day we have more data) is believed to be about 1.4%. This seems like a small number until you start to do the math.
Just taking the US as an example, I've seen some people call for everything to open and run normally so that we can achieve herd immunity. Most scientists believe that 80% of a population must be infected to achieve herd immunity. So, taking into account the US population of roughly 369 million people, 80% of that is 295.2 million people that would need to be infected to achieve 80% herd immunity. So if the case fatality rate is 1.4%, that means that 1.4% of those 295.2 million people would die, or roughly 4.1 million people.
Now that number is "only" 1.4% of 80% of the population of the United States. That's what I hear some people saying, but I don't think they realize that when you're dealing with such large numbers, 1.4% is incredibly high.
It is my personal opinion that we are in this mess due to the failure of our President and government to take mitigation measures soon enough. Had the US taken this seriously at the outset, it's possible that it could have been better contained and perhaps all of these draconian shutdowns would not have been necessary.
If we had the ability to test people en masse, we could then separate the sick from the healthy and allow the healthy to continue to move around. But since we don't have that ability, everyone has to stay put, because we don't know who is infected but asymptomatic and spreading the infection further.
All of these reasons are why I don't believe most of the conspiracies. I think this is mostly a result of incredibly poor planning and preparedness to deal with a pandemic.
My apologies, I had seen other reports that declared it only an epidemic. Still it was never as far reaching or as virulent as what we are currently seeing. But your arguments shows nothing of the shady dealings around all this.
Further, I don't disagree that many governments should have acted sooner. Our government in many ways did. Our first case was January 25 (four cases discovered in one day!) yet our figures are much lower than many other nations. Part of that is the protection we have as an island nation - something not afforded much of Europe for example. However there are other elements to consider:
Much of the Australian populations is much more spread out than most places around the world. Hardest hit areas have been cities. This is not something the government anywhere really has much say on in that way I don't think.
2. Medical System
One of the stresses said to exist in the US around this is that there is no national medical system. Here we do have a national medical system. The difference being reported is that many people in countries where this is not the case don't go and get tested because they can't afford to; whereas here, anybody who thinks they may have symptoms can go to a doctor and so this means these people are isolated much sooner.
3. Closing boarders
Both America and Australia did this fairly early (US the day before Australia). Many European nations did not. International spread therefore was still rampant in many countries for long after it should have been.
We actually now have criminal investigations into a cruise ship debacle (The Ruby Princess - I'm sure even internationally you have probably heard of it) because protocols were not followed. They have traced 1/3 of our cases back to this one cruise ship (either passengers on the ship or people who were in contact with those who had been). This alone shows the importance of such measures.
4. Intra-national travel
Australia does not have the travel between states as America does. And this would have aided spread there. I don't know what measures have been taken there but here states have closed their boarders to others states through state governments, in many cases even to residents and so only work related (predominantly transport companies for freight) are being allowed across boarders. Those crossing boarders are put into quarantine for 14 days. Australia is only marginally smaller than the US but that has actually helped interstate movement of the disease. Even before states were closed indigenous communities were made out of bounds until the disease is past.
And these are just a few things I can think of at the moment. So yes, government actions can and do have an impact on how this spreads.
"Herd immunity" comes either from ignorance or selfishness of those who think they would be safe, but is certainly not the answer. Just taking round figures and going down for "benefit of the doubt" say a death rate of 1% would still leave 2,625600 dead in the states only saying 80% of the population contracted it. In Australia that would be 199,920 dead. THAT is not acceptable by any stretch of the imagination.
Having said that, closing down the whole nation is killing the nation/s economically. My proposal would be:
1. close off areas that have had no cases. Nobody comes into those places except they are quarantined (BTW quarantine was a term adopted in Florence in response to plague and comes from the word quarenta meaning 40 - it was 40days isolation, which I think should be done because there is evidence that this stays active on surfaces for 19 days). This then at least gets some parts of the economy up and running...full capacity: no but it is a start and better than nothing.
2. Places that have not had any cases in 40 days be added to 1.
Gradually more and more of each country would be open and things would return to normal thus the economy not being crippled as much.
Still think China and WHO have a lot of questions to answer.
Actually the H1N1 pandemic was incredibly far-reaching. The CDC in the US estimates that between April 2009 and April 2010 there were 60.8 million infections just in the United States. Some worldwide estimates suggest that as much as 11 to 21% of the world's population was infected. Thankfully, that virus was not nearly as deadly, which is why these mitigation efforts were not necessary.
I think until we have adequate testing, we cannot responsibly re-open anything.
There are essentially two approaches to a viral outbreak; containment or mitigation.
We are currently in mitigation or trying to stop the viral spread. This is why we're all stuck at home with all sorts of things shut down, to prevent the person to person spread of the virus.
To get to a point of containment, which is essentially what you're suggesting in your 1-2 approach, we need to know who is infected and then separate them from those who are not infected. We can only know that by widespread testing.
Let's use my county as an example. As of this moment, there are 44 confirmed cases in my county that has a population of 110,683. That means roughly .04% of our county's population is infected. But we're not doing widespread testing. The key word in those 44 cases is CONFIRMED cases. Until we have the ability to do widespread testing on a representative percentage of the population, there is no way to know just how many people are infected. So I've seen people suggesting we should just reopen and have at it since we have so few infections. But if we do that, we're working blindly. The exponential spread of a virus quickly gets out of control. How quickly we all seem to forget that the US had a measly 15 infections less than 2 months ago. Current US case count today: 614,219.
What's worse is our President has said at one of his daily press briefings that he doesn't see the need for widespread testing. It's probably the most important aspect to a partial re-open, yet our President and our government don't seem to be doing anything to achieve that result.
I think it's possible to do what's necessary to begin to open sections of our country responsibly. But we need tests to do that, and I see no indication that's even in the works.
I can see what you are saying there Pete. It is like a something my father used to say: This houses is guarded by shotgun three nights a week. You decide which three. That type of a system just doesn't work. If we are going to do that, let's just play Russian Roulette and be done with. No, that is not the answer.
However, looking at Australia. North and West Queensland for example have had NO cases at all. So, why not section this area off so as to stop travel in and out of the area, and then allow them to go about their daily lives. For the rest of us, we do need to sit it out, but at least that would get part of the country running. Should a case break out, then continue with contact tracing and close off etc., but it seems ridiculous to shut them down when they have had no issues at all.
Further eastern north Queensland has had only two cases both brought in by people traveling from SE Qld. If they had not been allowed to travel into the region there would be no cases. But those cases were contained over a month ago and there have been no further outbreaks...See the logic?
If you have areas unaffected, isolate them from the areas that are and get them up and running. It would then be hoped that that unaffected area would expand over time and the infected areas are being isolated more and more. Like paper training a dog...as puppies the paper is everywhere they can get to. As they start using more and more one area, decrease where the paper is so that the area used becomes less and less. Here we are just isolating where the virus would be more and more.
What's testing like in Australia? In the US, it's abysmal, which is why we have to say things like, we only know of 44 cases in our county. Unfortunately, we cannot know with certainty, because tests are hard to come by. Even if you present with symptoms contemporaneous with the disease, you may not get tested unless you are severely ill. Even if you've been near someone who was diagnosed, you cannot get tested unless you have symptoms. So the US testing in many places is horribly deficient.
Does Australia have better testing, or is it a similar situation? I only ask because it's a very different thing to say definitively that North and West Queensland have NO cases and we know that because there has been extensive testing vs. saying we don't know of any confirmed cases.
I think this is one of the reasons South Korea has been much more successful in its containment. Their aggressive testing allowed them to identify and contain the infection before it got out of control. Both the US and South Korea identified their first cases on the same day in January. South Korea immediately jumped into action developing tests and setting up drive-thru testing sites while the US downplayed the threat for nearly 2 months. The result has been stark. Current data shows the total number of cases in South Korea at 10,591 with 225 deaths vs. the US at 614,246 cases with 26,064 deaths. Even adjusting for different populations, the US currently has a death rate of 79 per million while South Korea's is 4 per million.
I agree with you that isolating the sick from the healthy is what needs to happen. But because this can be transmitted asymptomatically, much testing, even of people that seem perfectly healthy, is needed to ensure the areas truly are not infected.
Here is an interesting article that lends some credence to the idea that the virus could have originated from a lab accident in Wuhan and not from a wet market;
One thing that this article is careful to note is that there is no evidence that the current coronavirus we're dealing with was engineered, but that does not preclude the possibility that it could have originated from that lab that was studying bat coronaviruses.
I think to understand where I am coming from here Pete. Queensland (1.853 million km2), as the example I have used, is larger than Alaska (1.718 million km2) the US's largest state. Texas (695,662 km2) is only 40% the size of Alaska.
To travel from one end of Queensland to the other is north to south is 2,236.2km.
85% of Australia's population lives on the coast (81% on the east coast) compared to America's 40% that live on the coast.
Testing in Australia according to worldometer is 14,564/million compared to America's 9,730/million (note: because of population size this means about 10times as many tests in US).
The point is, that once you get past the cities things are very spread out and isolated anyway. We have had no flights into the country or across the country, and all internal travel has been suspended except for freight and "necessary work" for well over a month. People have been fined for trying. I can't go and see family 2hours away in Toowoomba and one man got fined and sent home for trying to get to a Tinder date Cairns to Port Douglas (only 1hrs drive).
Even if there had been asymptomatic cases in these areas, it seems far fetched to believe that there would have been NO symptomatic cases in these areas. After a month, if anyone had been infected, people would be showing up by now. Surely then, such areas should be opened with travel restricted to within the declared "safe" area.
Say you had cases in Florida ... even in some of the surrounding states. Would it make sense to shut down Wisconsin and it's surrounding states from all business even though they had none? Yet effectively that is what is happening. Those are the distances we are talking about...and with people not allowed to travel, that defies all logic.
Is anything like what you're proposing under consideration?
Different states in the US are starting to propose plans for re-opening parts of the economy. I've recently gotten into some debates on Facebook regarding homemade mask usage. Pennsylvania today has mandated that these masks be worn in public, but I remain incredibly skeptical that there is any benefit at all to wearing a homemade, cloth mask. There really haven't been enough studies and there is not enough data to know if these masks provide any benefit. In fact, the studies we have seem to indicate that any benefit derived from wearing a cloth mask is very minimal. When talking of a virus that is probably around 5 microns or smaller, cotton isn't going to filter that at all.
Interestingly enough, the experts don't even seem to be able to agree on whether homemade cloth masks provide any protection. It sure feels like doing something just to do something whether it actually helps or not. In fact, until last week, the CDC in the US advised against wearing masks. Now all of a sudden that guidance has changed, and me being the analytical type wants to understand what data was used to inform this decision.
Unfortunately not. It has been proposed to the Queensland Premier by many municipal governments but Palaszczuk (pronounced: Palachay) insists we are one state and we will move as a state. :doh: Typical Labour government logic. Thank goodness we have a Liberal Prime Minister (be aware our liberal is very different to yours ... here labour is left liberal right) who is a REAL Christian.
There are to be discussions with the federal government to day as to what if anything they can do yet to ease restrictions. We have not had the massive spike predicted if we did nothing. Our curve has flattened...we peaked at only 400-500 new cases a day and now are averaging only 40-50 new cases a day often less. Governments acted fast and decisively here and we have reaped the benefits. Still,tThe biggest concern here is that we are just coming into winter. Nobody knows if this will affect anything, but generally the flu spreads more in winter than in summer. Nobody really knows why, we just know that it does.
Right from Day 1 Morrison was saying that anything we brought in could be in place for at least 6months because of this. Certainly boarder closures internationally could be far longer. But as things have dropped consistently and significantly there are considerations as to what can be done to relax a few (definitely not all) of the restrictions that have been in place....We will see. As Morrison has said, we do not want to relax restrictions too soon and be caught out that way.
Quote from: Foadle on April 14, 2020, 08:20:10 pmBut why are such virulent viruses coming ONLY out of Chinese wet-markets.Speaking from a 'professional' POV - and maybe I'm just ill-informed - I think that in certain areas of the Chinese population, they want for a quality of cleanliness and hygiene in their every day lives and kitchens. So if this form of food that is taken from totally wild stock, is not prepared and cooked properly, then it would be entirely possible for such organisms to get a foothold and infect vast populations. The same has happened in history with the Bubonic plague in the 14th century and Spanish flu in 1918. Most of the spread was due to poor personal and household hygiene because, obviously, nobody understood it. The same is NOT happening with Covid-19 because, in general, we DO understand the process of cross-infection and the need for strict personal and household hygiene.
Quote from: Foadle on April 14, 2020, 07:50:04 pmPersonally, I am of the opinion that China is trying to manufacture biological weapons and that they have escaped from labs.I would not and cannot agree with that premise. The theory of simplistic cross-infection because of poor personal and domestic hygiene is far too compelling an alternative.
Quote from: flaglady on April 16, 2020, 10:39:54 amI would not and cannot agree with that premise. The theory of simplistic cross-infection because of poor personal and domestic hygiene is far too compelling an alternative.
I don't think this virus was engineered as a weapon, but I do believe it's plausible that the virus was being studied at a lab in Wuhan and escaped from the lab. Recent reporting (from my link above) shows that there had been ongoing concerns about safety and security at Wuhan labs that were studying bat coronaviruses. At this point, both scenarios are circumstantial, but I believe both are plausible.
Bill I owe you an apology. I have been very out of line in this thread. I have not written my responses in love. No they were not exactly out of love, and I believe I was always respectful in what I said, but God rebuked me last night about my motives and there is the problem. I had to be right. Love didn't even enter into it, yet that is what should motivate everything we do. Thankfully God is a God of forgiveness, and He has been merciful enough to show me my fault, it is not up to me to respond to that. I repent, turn around :blank: , and change my attitude so that I can move more in the dispensation of the messiah.
Thanks for bearing with me the last couple of days.
If you're talking to me (since there is no Bill in this thread ;)) I can assure you that I didn't feel we were doing anything other than having a nice discussion. However, I commend you for sharing what God has told you and acting on it. While I didn't feel you were coming across as needing to be right, only you and God know your true motives.
Rest assured that I'm not looking to win any arguments or convince anyone of anything. I'm simply sharing what I believe to be true and why. It's OK if we disagree on some things. But you are very correct that Love should be our driving motivation in all we do.
Thank you Pete. I have no doubt that for you it was just that, and ... until I was convicted I would have asserted the same. But as God talked to me I found that though your motives were kosher, mine were not. It is something God has been addressing with me on and off for a little while now. I know that you have always shown yourself to be a man of integrity and have acted accordingly. In this case, I was not.
BTW: We are still under level 3 lockdown for the next 4 weeks but after that they should have put some things in place and they should start lifting some of the restrictions here...not sure what or how yet though.
We're supposed to find out "the plan" for Pennsylvania next week. No timetable is set. They say it will be "data driven". I'm giddy with anticipation.
I wouldn't get to excited...we were waiting for that for a month!
So I have another question for Jo and Foadle; are your citizens protesting the lockdown orders? We're seeing a growing number of people who are growing wary of being quarantined and are demanding local governments get things open again. Is that happening in your countries as well?
I saw that on one of the news reports. No we haven't had that here, but I don't think our lockdowns are as severe as yours. I think people are getting restless though
So we just heard today that our stay at home order is being extended by 8 days until May 8. That is when the reopening will begin, but we don't know exactly what that means or how it will happen yet.
Is this just on a regional basis or for the States as a whole? Not wanting to put a dampener on things but I have seen the numbers coming out of the US. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
They have extended ours until about the same time and we have had less than 50 cases/day for a couple of weeks. In fact the last couple of days has been less than 20. I am not your government (thank goodness I am not any government in this situation; I would not want to be calling the shots) but with the figures coming out I would be wary of lifting restrictions too soon and making the problem worse.
BTW: I forgot to reply about the homemade face masks. I agree with you. At best all they would do is perhaps give people a sense that they were protected without really protecting them. My mother has sent me a few links to the like but they really would do nothing unless they were hospital grade.
Unfortunately, there weren't really a lot of details. My guess is they will re-open county by county. That's how the stay-at-home orders started until the entire state was shut down.
Current data for my county has 59 confirmed infections, but we've also only tested about 550 people out of around 100,000. Can't really tell with such small testing numbers how widespread it might be.
They also started reporting by ZIP code today. My ZIP code has 1-4 confirmed cases according to the map. Surrounding ZIP codes have no more than 10-20 confirmed cases. But like I said, it's impossible to know if it's more widespread than that since so few tests are being done.
From what I can tell, they hope to ramp up the testing by May 8, which is why they're setting that as the target date to start reopening. More details are supposed to come out this week.
Also about the masks, it gets stupider every day. Now they are mandatory in stores, but not mandatory on public transportation. People are in much tighter quarters on a bus or a train than in a store, but face coverings are only mandatory in the store. Makes no sense at all.
:doh: no logic to that at all. We have had the opposite here where they have been telling us that the masks are more of a protection if worn by the one who has the virus than those who don't; and that they are better left for medical teams who are in extreme close proximity to patients (not just those with the virus). That makes a lot more sense to me.
Having said that we certainly have had our share of illogical legislations around all this. :shrug:
Just take precautions Pete. It only takes one infected person and the whole thing could take off again. Make sure you go in the protection of our Lord Jesus Christ...and pray Psalm 91 over yourself ;).
Off topic but an aside...how many people actually do come to this site now? The last few days it has seemed like just you and I. The only other I have seen has been Flaglady and even her only once.
Sadly, almost no one posts on HGO these days.
Jim, Jo, Bryan, and LittleRocketBoy post occasionally. We can go weeks at a time without any posts. I think in general, people just don't post on forums like they used to. Even Christian Forums, where I'll lurk every once in a while, is pretty dormant.
:cry: certainly lacks the vibrancy it once had here. Times change though I guess. Really it is only within our life time that communication like this has even be possible. Still it is sad...and I helped it along, for I have not been around for a long long time either.
Quote from: Pete on April 19, 2020, 01:14:14 amare your citizens protesting the lockdown orders?No, we've had no campaigns against it and I was shocked to see the news reports from the US. But Pete, you know us Brits - we just LOVE an excuse to queue!
Quote from: Pete on April 21, 2020, 11:00:59 amJim, Jo, Bryan, and LittleRocketBoy post occasionally. We can go weeks at a time without any posts.
Quote from: Pete on April 21, 2020, 11:00:59 amI think in general, people just don't post on forums like they used toI think those are very sad truths. This was such a lively forum (as was CF). I keep hoping and praying but no good.
I guess now with facebook and twitter and the like, that has become the preference. I have just got back on facebook, and I must say that there is no real discussion like you get here.
Quote from: Foadle on May 17, 2020, 04:36:33 pmI guess now with facebook and twitter and the like, that has become the preference. I have just got back on facebook, and I must say that there is no real discussion like you get here.
That's true, but I honestly think that's the way many people prefer it. Facebook is rife with memes and one-liners that don't require any real thought. But it's remarkably intellectually lazy, IMHO. It's much easier for someone to repost something someone else said than it is to formulate one's own thoughts and practice some critical thinking skills. Ironically, those same people reposting other people's thoughts are often telling others they need to think for themselves. You can't make this stuff up...
Exactly right. It comes back to something I have thought for a long time: Our world is living in an age of a progress illusion. We live in a world where (for the west at least) there is little to no excuse for lack of communication, yet communication has been diminished to the levels of reposting and sharing memes and videos. I have people who are confused when I say I have had no contact with them in a long time because they have been texting me YouTube videos or pictures or whatever...THAT IS NOT COMMUNICATION.
Further we are in a world where with all the technology we are supposed to have had our time freed up, yet people are busier than they have ever been. Why?
No progress is not what we have been lead to believe...
I'm sorry I've been distant. I visit semi regularly, but just don't seem to be able to add any depth to the conversation. That and I'm still struggling just to find some real meaning to my faith. I do have a rather interesting question I'll ask on a new thread.
I hardly ever visit CF anymore. The last few times I did it seemed my normal spots have been overrun by rather radical posts. Not all but it seemed like more than most. I don't have the patience for it. Which is funny because I am sure when I started there I could have easily been considered "a radical".
This coronavirus really ended up more prevalent than I first imagined it being, although if I'm going to be blunt I think it's still blown out of proportion. I think the last statistics I saw were something like 90% of those who got it never even saw the hospital and out of that 10% who did get it on a serious level, only 10% of that number lost their life.
Now I'm not belittling any loss of life, but my point is society is reacting as though contracting the virus is a death sentence for anyone who contracts it when that's just not true. Actually I remember when the panic first started in earnest, a very high profile politician said just that. Fear mongering and it's despicable.
Here in the states most states are seeing a downward trend of cases and such and yet several are still in some type of archaic lockdown. I know people are trying to be wise and we are all doing what we believe is right, but people have lost jobs, businesses, years of dreams and planning that this virus (and the response to it) has ripped away. The anger is understandable.
I just hope and pray those who have lost something during this time can find some type of recompense at the back end.
I am agreeing with you. Here in Australia we have not had anywhere near the number of cases you have had in the states. We have had less than 30 new cases a day for weeks (normally less then 10 but there have been a couple of cluster outbreaks). Despite this there are still restrictions across the country. Some states (my own included) have still got there borders shut to other states, they are starting to open some restaurants and cafe's but only a maximum of 10 customers at a time inside!
In many ways this whole thing has been overplayed...or was it. It is seeming more and more like a practice run project to see how well the masses can be controlled, which in itself is concerning.
Quote from: Pete on May 18, 2020, 12:46:01 pmThat's true, but I honestly think that's the way many people prefer it. Facebook is rife with memes and one-liners that don't require any real thought. But it's remarkably intellectually lazy, IMHO. It's much easier for someone to repost something someone else said than it is to formulate one's own thoughts and practice some critical thinking skills. Ironically, those same people reposting other people's thoughts are often telling others they need to think for themselves. You can't make this stuff up...
You aren't kidding.
Posting on forums goes up and down according to seasonal highs and lows.
The trend I'm currently seeing is that many people (like you and my wife) is working from home means that you have to show somewhat of an increased production to prove to the bosses that you are indeed actually working even though you aren't in the office at the time.
People used to peruse social media while at work...now with the added work they aren't.
And with the added isolation people aren't getting any real stimulation like they used to from work colleagues and others from face to face contact.
Which brings up the point that so many people aren't really living. They don't work towards things. I'm a bit different than most with my mechanical aptitude...but usually we all do something.
I've built a new cherry dining room table, two different jigsaw puzzles and now am starting on a new leather tool bag.
And as I do my various projects I come up against obstacles that I need to overcome...so I talk about them. Like a normal person.
Currently with people no one has a relationship providing an obstacle, tasks creating problems, or concerts or traffic or much of anything else going on.
Where these things are challenges that we overcome on a regular basis...they provide fodder for discussion and commiserating with friends. We don't even have daycare or schools.
It's killing our society in a lot of ways.
So between the mentally exhausted and the lack of interaction with the mentally proficient... social media is in the doldrums.
I'm personally irritated with it all as the arthritis in my knee (complete with a serious bone bruising) has me laid up for most of this quarantine. We came out of quarantine but we had to go back because the numbers balooned again.
I could go back to work if I was able...(got an appointment with the doctor next week)
I've seriously missed the birthday celebrations, Easter, Mother's Day, Father's day...my anniversary. The BBQ in the park and etc.
I know people are sneaking around and doing some of this...but it is a huge risk.
But as the summer gets too hot... people will come back with tales to tell.
We should avoid it, not approach it.
Jesus did not avoid the sick... He healed it. How much do we truly live out of the healing power of God.
He did not go out actively seeking it...that would be presumption, but neither did he avoid it - that would be living in fear. He simply allowed God to be God in His life.
Having said that, in so much as the laws of the land are not in conflict with the laws of God, if we are told to stay at home for a season, so we should, because God also told us to honour those in authority.
Even though this virus is real, I think a lot of it is just the media trying to scare everybody.
ain't that the truth. Yes it is real, very real, and we need to have an awareness of its potential to harm. But the media do love to have the latest fad. I must say though that at least the focus on the virus has taken the focus of the global warming claptrap they have been pushing for so long.
Today I talked with Sean...he is an electrician but currently working at a big box hardware store. He has had two different fevers and when he has one he can't go to work.
But he gets over them and goes right back.
And if they were Covid...and if he has re-infected himself twice then he is out there... just saying.
Why would he not get tested to be sure?
Because he's an idiot and is sure that this is all some kind of hyped up overblown Pandemic.
He really doesn't understand it and will eventually end up dead. (Sean is an alcoholic)
And Sean is also one of the "working poor". Meaning he will always have to work to pay fines, debts, or child support while funding his chemical depandancy. He literally can't afford to take time out to recover from his illness.
That's why he is in Arizona in the middle of the summer.
Most of the travellers I know go south for the winter and north for the summer. He's doing it in reverse because he is broke.
Very sad situation. I guess that is where our medical system has helped the virus, not hindered it. Basic medical treatment is free to all citizens. ... Still time off work for recovery would not help, but having said that, government is currently paying incentives for bosses to keep employees employed even if the work is not there, and double unemployment benefits until September for those who are unemployed.
All I can say is that Sean needs our prayers, the wisdom of God, and the courage to use the wisdom of God.